Current vibe – Spot is hovering around 0.652‑0.654, down ~0.15% on the day and still boxed inside a rectangular range (0.6470‑0.6630) on the daily chart ¹.
– Key zones to watch
– Resistance: 0.6550 (immediate), 0.6565‑0.6580 (upper rectangle), 0.6630 (breakout target) ² ¹
– Support: 0.6514 (intraday pivot), 0.6500‑0.6485 (lower rectangle), 0.6470 (critical floor) ² ¹
– Technical flavor
– RSI (48‑50) is neutral, showing fading momentum.
– MACD is flat‑crossed, hinting at consolidation.
– 100‑day SMA (≈0.6539) acted as a tug‑of‑war line this week; price bounced off it twice today ³.
– Catalyst calendar
– Wednesday: Fed Minutes (high volatility)
– Friday: UK CPI, US retail sales, S&P PMI – can swing sentiment either way ¹
– Scenario roadmap
– Bullish flip: Break & hold above 0.6550 → targets 0.6565, 0.6580, then 0.6630 (rectangle top).
– Bearish correction: Slip under 0.6514 → tests 0.6500, 0.6485, possibly 0.6470‑0.6414 (lower rectangle) ² ¹.
Bottom line: AUD/USD is stuck in a tight range. A push past 0.6550 or a dip below 0.6514 will dictate the week’s bias. Trade tight stops and keep an eye on the Fed minutes for a volatility surge
