GBP/USD
Current level
Spot around 1.315‑1.316, hovering near the top of last week’s 130‑pip range and just under the 21‑day SMA (≈1.3220) ¹.
Trend & momentum
– Daily bias stays neutral‑to‑bearish. The pair is sandwiched between the 1.3247 resistance (key upside flip) and 1.3008 support.
– RSI (14‑day) sits near 41‑50, indicating fading momentum; MACD shows a bearish cross on the daily chart ² ¹.
Key levels to watch
– Resistance:
– 1.3190‑1.3200 (weekly swing high)
– 1.3247 (critical barrier – break turns outlook bullish)
– 1.3280‑1.3300 (200‑day SMA zone) ¹ ³
– Support:
– 1.3085‑1.3100 (immediate floor)
– 1.3008 (recent low, breach opens path to 1.2831 projection)
– 1.2967‑1.2870 (last line of defense) ² ⁴
Catalysts this week
– Wednesday: Fed Minutes (high volatility)
– UK CPI (soft reading could pressure GBP)
– Retail sales & S&P PMI (Friday) will add short‑term swing fuel ⁵ ¹
Scenario roadmap
– Bullish flip: Sustained move above 1.3247 → targets 1.3280, 1.3365 (50‑day SMA), then 1.3421 (100‑day SMA).
– Bearish continuation: Drop below 1.3085 → tests 1.3008, with next downside objective at 1.2831 (138.2% projection) and possibly 1.2744 (61.8% retrenchment) ⁴ ².
Bottom line: GBP/USD is in a tight consolidation. A break of 1.3247 or 1.3085 will dictate the direction for the week
