USD/CHF – Technical Outlook for This Week
– Current Level – Spot around 0.7945‑0.7950 CHF, still hovering near the top of the daily range.
– Trend Status – The pair is trapped in a neutral‑to‑bearish consolidation. The corrective rally from 0.7828 (three‑wave up to 0.8123) looks exhausted, and the 55‑day EMA (≈0.8007) is acting as a dynamic resistance. A decisive break below it would tilt the bias back to downside. ¹
Key Levels to Watch
– Support:
– 0.7923 (intraday pivot)
– 0.7872 (major swing low)
– 0.7828 (critical low – breach opens path to 0.7599 projection)
– Resistance:
– 0.7985 (short‑bias flip)
– 0.8010 (minor)
– 0.8123 (temporary top – break resumes rally toward 0.8213)
Technical Indicators
– RSI (14) ~ 48‑49, indicating neutral momentum.
– MACD on daily chart shows bearish divergence, supporting downside pressure.
– ADX (35.66) signals a strong trend, but direction still needs confirmation.
Scenario Roadmap
– Bearish Break: Slip under 0.7923 → target 0.7872, then 0.7828, with next downside objective at 38.2% projection of 0.9200‑0.7828 from 0.8123 (≈0.7599).
– Bullish Flip: Push above 0.7985 → re‑test 0.8010/0.8030, and if 0.8123 cracks, look for 0.8213 (138.2% projection).
Market Drivers to Keep on Radar
– USD Factor: Weakening DXY on trimmed Fed‑cut expectations (~50% chance of Dec cut) caps upside.
– CHF Factor: Safe‑haven demand persists, especially if geopolitical tension spikes.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is balanced on a knife‑edge. A breach of 0.7923 leans bearish; a rally past 0.7985 could spark a modest rebound
