Current vibe – Spot is hovering around 154.60‑154.65, just shy of the 155.00 psychological barrier and near a nine‑month high. The pair is still riding the “buy‑the‑dip” momentum from last week’s breakout above 154.45‑50 resistance ¹ ².
– Key zones to watch
– Resistance: 155.00 (psychological), 155.20 (UOB target), 155.55‑156.00 (next upside wall) ³ ⁴
– Support: 154.50 (intraday pivot), 154.25 (Bollinger mid‑band), 153.30 (crucial support if bears break) ⁵ ⁴
– Technical flavor
– Oscillators on the daily chart are still in positive territory but edge toward overbought; RSI shows hidden bearish divergence, suggesting a pull‑back is plausible.
– MACD on the 4‑hour frame is holding a bullish cross, reinforcing the short‑term uptrend.
– Pattern watch: a triple top near 154.90 and a rising wedge on the 4‑hour chart hint at possible reversal if 154.50 flips to resistance ⁵.
– Catalyst calendar
– Wednesday: Fed Minutes (high volatility)
– Friday: UK CPI, US retail sales, S&P PMI – can swing sentiment either way ⁶
– Scenario roadmap
– Bullish flip: Break & hold above 155.00 → target 155.20, then 155.55‑156.00.
– Bearish correction: Slip under 154.50 → test 154.25, 153.30, possibly 151.20 if the wedge breaks down ⁴ ⁵.
– Risk note: Japanese authorities keep warning about “one‑sided moves”; intervention risk spikes if USD/JPY breaches 155.00 decisively ² ¹.
Bottom line: USD/JPY is perched on a knife‑edge. A push past 155.00 could unleash fresh buying, while a dip below 154.50 may trigger a quick pull‑back. Trade tight stops and keep an eye on the Fed minutes for a volatility surge
